Extreme Weather Expertises

Extreme Weather Expertises (EXWEXS) featured the Local Measurement and Forecast System (LMFS).

Weather forecasting accuracy is an “initial value” problem, thus having a good measurement of the vertical atmospheric state locally is a key to perform an accurate forecast. LMFS performs vertical atmospheric profiles then produces very high space and time resolution weather forecasts from local to regional scale (250km around the measurement). The product is dedicated to areas where no accurate and relevant weather forecasts exist or where no weather services exist. The efficiency is the highest under convective and polar conditions.

• Forecast can be displayed locally or remotely with tablet or smartphone.
• Dedicated to operational activities that require accurate Meteo Alert.

What is LMFS?
• High frequency (all 10 min) in-situ atmospheric vertical profiles with very high accuracy
• Direct model assimilation of the profile to produce Analyses and weather Forecasts.
• Very fast and low consumption computing system for assimilation and modelling
• Robust, automatic and low-maintenance system
• Independent of power supply or Internet network (solar and wind power available, 3G/4G or satellite connection)
• Easy to deploy (half a day)

The LMFS product and applications were highlighted by means of the antenna performing the vertical profiles as well as the computing system and end user interface will be presented.

They also highlighted Integrated Crisis Forecast System (ICFS). This service is dedicated to crisis operational weather forecast (from 0 to 48h) at very high space resolution every 10 minutes. The ICFS Service is available between 3h to 6h after triggering event.

In many regions over the world, there is no weather service and even more, no weather forecast. The weather forecasts are usually delivered (if possible) by remote companies or services and the forecasts are based on synoptic conditions with no local or regional data.

Nevertheless weather forecasting is still an “initial value” problem hence, the biggest uncertainty is knowledge of the initial conditions that induces the biggest uncertainty of the forecast itself. Quality and extend of the initial condition is the clue of an accurate short-term forecast. The measurements can give this initial condition precisely and realistically but relevant data collection is always a real issue.

Thus, they explain: “if an accurate and easy to perform vertical measurement is available, we have more accurate local data on current conditions, and could get it into a weather forecast model, thus we could get big improvements in the forecast quality, especially for hazard events.”

Also, one can get an instant boost to forecasting accuracy whenever they upgrade to a faster supercomputer. Indeed, forecast needs to be delivered to a customer by a fixed deadline. If the models can run faster, the start of the run can be delayed, giving more time to collect newer or accurate data on current conditions, and more time to process this data to correct for errors, and so on.

The LMFS product is a kind of professional “DIY” weather measurement and forecast platform. It performs automatically vertical measurements, model assimilation and forecast and delivers easy to use products via end-user interfaces (monitor, tablet, smartphone). The forecast is able to cover a square of more than 250 km X 250km with only one high frequency atmospheric vertical profile.

LMFS gives independence back (with quality and accuracy) to the clients again. This latter performs on its own operational weather forecast at low cost.

Moreover, the system is reliable, robust rather than high-tech breakable technology and designed for harsh meteorological conditions. It is of use for defence remote operations, airports, and wind farms.

The Integrated Crisis Forecast System (ICFS) is used by CAYAMBE partners for oil spill crisis or day by day harbour management Their exhibits are of interest to those attending the following conference streams Hydrography, Geophysics and Geotechnics; Marine Renewables; Ocean Observing Systems: Marine Technology and Services Sector Role in the Blue Economy; Oil & Gas: What’s next for Ageing Offshore Assets?; Unmanned Vehicles and Vessels Showcase.

EXWEXS delivers scientific expertise regarding environmental conditions. EXWEXS also manages overall projects related to meteorology on site, from the design to operational activity. EXWEXS is then able to bring relevant advices for the meteorological installation in order to operate. EXWEXS provides studies made by scientists only for key decision makers or governments, in the field of aviation, shipping, military, off shore industry, renewable energy and agriculture … anybody for whom the weather is a critical factor in day to day operation. The issues are mainly associated to activities with high environmental risks during exploration or operational exploitation, over continental or oceanic regions, from the poles to the tropical regions. www.exwexs.fr

 

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